„We are living in historic times, when anything can happen. A yuan-based world order could be based in Moscow, Budapest or even a city like Singapore,” Zoltán Pozsár, chief global strategist at Credit Suisse, told Portfolio.hu.
In the interview, Pozsár spoke about the negative impact of sanctions, the changing world order and the opportunities it offers.
„The oil price shock is comparable to 1973, with all commodity prices rising. And once again, it’s not because the Russians have turned off the tap, it’s because the West is sanctioning itself.”
– said the financial expert.
Pozsár said Germany is in a particularly difficult position because of green energy:
„If you want wind turbines, you need steel and concrete; if you want to increase military spending, you need steel. So the green transition also has an inflationary effect in the medium term, and in the short term wheat, energy, fertilizer all contribute to inflation. In addition, it is becoming increasingly common to argue that direct fiscal injections will be needed due to price declines — and again, this will only have an inflationary effect.
How this situation in Europe does not result in much higher inflation, higher yields and a much weaker euro is beyond me.”
According to the expert, Europe needs Russian energy whether it wants it or not, and Hungary is incredibly lucky with its gas contract.
Pozsár said that sanctions are very counterproductive:
„You can use the extraordinary privileges of the dollar as a weapon, but only once! Not more than once. You can play around with Afghanistan, Iran and similar small economies, but confiscating half a trillion euro-dollars is a whole other level. Everyone has learned their lesson.
„Put ourselves in the shoes of the Chinese: If we have geopolitical ambitions for Taiwan in the next 5-10 years, why buy assets that are tied up for 10-20-30 years, and if we make a move, they’re frozen?”
The expert said a new Chinese-led world order could emerge in which Hungary, on the border between East and West, could even play a major role if it wants to.
„We are living in historic times, anything can happen. A yuan-based world order could be based in Moscow, Budapest, or even a city like Singapore.”
The full interview is available here.
Photo: German Finance Minister Christian Lindner/EPA/MARISCAL